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經濟軟著陸
Steering the Economy to a Soft Landing
很多用來描述貨幣政策的詞，例如“經濟軟著陸”“讓經濟剎車”,使它聽起來像 是一門精確的科學。事實遠非如此。利率和通貨膨脹之間的聯系是不確定的。在政 策調整對經濟產生影響前，會有那么一段為時不短但變幻不定的后滯期。
Much of the language used to describe the monetary policy，such as “ steering the economy to a soft landing” or “a touch on the brakes”，makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy.
西方七大工業國去年的平均通貨膨脹率降到了 2.3%，接近30年來最低的水平， 今年7月才略微升高到2.5%。這比很多國家在70年代和80年代早期經歷的兩位數 的膨脹率要低多了。這也比大多數預言家預測的都要低。1994年底，在《經濟學家》 每月舉行民意測驗的專家組預測，美國在1995年平均通貨膨脹率將是3.5%,可實際上，8月份就降到了 2.6%，而且整個一年的平均通貨膨脹率有望維持在3%左右。
Average inflation in the seven big industrial economies fell to a mere 2. 3% last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2.5% this July. This is a long way below the double digit rates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s. It is also less than most forecasters had predicted. In late 1994, the panel of economists which the Economist polls each month said that America's inflation rate would average 3.5% in 1995. In fact, it fell to 2. 6% in August, and is expected to average only about 3% for the year as a whole.
英國和日本的通貨膨脹率比去年底的預測要低半個百分點。這不是曇花一現。 在過去幾年里，英國和美國通貨膨脹率連續低于預測水平。經濟學家對英美兩國可喜的通脹率尤其感到詫異，因為傳統的衡量表明兩國經濟，特別是美國經濟并沒有出現絲毫的后退。
In Britain and Japan, inflation is running half a percentage point below the rate predicted at the end of last year. This is no flash in the pan ； over the past couple of years； inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America. Economists have been particularly surprised by favorable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, and especially America’s have little productive slack.
為何通貨膨脹率如此的輕微？遺憾的是，最令人鼓舞的解釋也有漏洞。某些經濟學家聲稱，世界經濟結構的強力調整已打破了舊有的經濟模式，即以經濟增長和通貨膨脹之間的歷史聯系為基礎的模式。
Why has inflation proved so mild? The most thrilling explanation is，unfortunately, a little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have upended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.
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